History says Trump’s low approval rating is unlikely to move
The Pretext
A new Gallup poll remarks that 39% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 57% disapprove.
That poll is in line with the average poll that shows Trump’s approval rating is in the low 40s among every adult and voter.
We’ve still got five months, nonetheless, until the general election, which is plenty of time for the race for president to change.
Presidential approval ratings haven’t historically moved much from June of an election year to Election Day.
Procession
It seems quite assuring now that Trump’s approval rating is going to stay below 50% and his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) to be negative when people vote.
That should be deeply surreal to Trump, given the strong link between approval ratings and reelection chances.
There have been 13 presidents who have run for another term in the polling era.
End
The average president has seen his approval rating shift by just 3 points from now until the election.
If anything, that would only get Trump into the mid-40s at best.
Trump’s approval rating was similar during the 2018 midterms when his party lost control of the House.
Net approval ratings tell the same story, more or less.
The average president had his net approval rating shift by only 6 points from this point forward and it stuns me.
Given Trump’s net approval rating is in the negative low to mid-teens, a 6-point improvement would land him with a net approval around -7 to -10 points on Election Day.
Well again, that’s about where he was during the 2018 midterms.
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