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Since the shocking killings at Sandy Hook Elementary School ten years ago, America has had hundreds more mass shootings, a steep increase in gun deaths overall, and an unsettling shift toward political extremism that glorifies firearms. Nevertheless, we continue to rely on a large number of rules that forbid the possession of assault weapons by criminals and prevent juveniles from purchasing pistols. Now, many of these existing rules face the possibility of being eliminated due to a recent Supreme Court decision. As horrible as gun violence is in America, it might be about to grow even worse.

Justice Clarence Thomas authored the majority opinion in the case New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen less than two years after President Donald Trump’s third candidate for the U.S. Supreme Court was appointed, establishing a 6-3 conservative supermajority. The Court could have made a specific ruling and instructed New York to grant concealed-carry permits with less stringency. However, just like in the abortion case Dobbs v. Jackson, which was decided a day after Bruen this year, the conservative majority grabbed the chance not to modify precedent gradually but to entirely obliterate it.

The Bruen opinion is proving nothing short of seismic for public safety and gun laws. Courts around the nation are hurrying to handle a flurry of lawsuits and motions that will result in regulatory confusion regarding firearms, even as the country grapples with yet another string of terrible murders. Many of these cases are crafted to result in appeals that might ultimately be heard by a Supreme Court that is inclined to give Second Amendment rights the fullest possible interpretations.

Thomas made it clear in the Bruen opinion that going forward, the Court’s conservative majority would evaluate all firearms regulations according to a new originalist standard: If there is no historical evidence connecting a gun law to either 1791 or 1868—the years the Second and Fourteenth Amendments, respectively—then any contemporary law restricting firearms is likely to be deemed unconstitutional. Never mind that a trained soldier in the 18th century could only shoot a musket, at most, three or four times a minute, compared to a current teenager with an AR-15 rifle.

Alan Tang What if the court was as tolerant of other rights as it was of gun ownership?

The Thomas ruling unintentionally requires subordinate court judges to perform archival and historical research. They must find precedents for new gun cases in incomplete or centuries-old records. The findings may shock Americans who trust public safety rules to protect children in schools and congregations at religious gatherings, athletic events, and other events. This Court has made it easier for troubled 18-year-olds to become mass shooters. This Court did this to encourage an unrepresentative, extremist pro-gun minority of Americans whose loud demands for the right to bear guns have found receptive ears on the Supreme Court.

A few cases already provide us a preview of what Bruen’s reign may bring. A judge in West Virginia recently declared the federal law requiring serial numbers on firearms illegal because he could not locate any proof of a legislation mandating serial numbers on firearms dating back to 1791. If that judge’s ruling is confirmed, it will be nearly impossible for police officers to solve gun crimes because the majority of these inquiries are based on serial-number information.

The Texas law that forbade domestic abusers from owning guns was recently overturned by a judge. The unfortunate fact that marital violence was not a crime in the 1700s informs his reasoning. This decision will overturn laws across the country that have prohibited abusers from purchasing more than 300,000 guns, and it comes at a time when statistics show a sharp increase in the number of women, including Black women at a disproportionate rate, who have been killed by a male gun owner in their lives.

A judge in New York declared in October that since there were no longer any laws prohibiting armed parishioners, weapons must be allowed in places of worship. The sale of 30-round, or even 100-round, magazines for any type of gun, including the AR-15s favoured by mass shooters who want to cause as much carnage as they can without pausing to reload, may be unregulated in any state or municipality due to laws regulating magazine capacity that are currently facing challenges (a moment that makes them vulnerable to citizens fighting back to subdue them).

A recent Texas law banning minors from carrying firearms was invalidated because there was no such rule at the time of our founding. Similar lawsuits are underway in other courts, and if they are upheld, they might allow 18-year-olds to buy pistols (the current national legislation demands a minimum age of 21) and jeopardize national AR-15 rifle age restrictions. Previous litigation could topple assault rifle sales laws in many states.

Bruen-induced lawsuits to abolish all background checks are based on the absurd claim that doing so violates the Constitution because there was no national computerized criminal history database when the nation was created. The Bruen decision has advanced this cause to the point that a case like this would seek to eliminate the background-check system, which has kept millions of dangerous criminals from purchasing guns.

This post-Bruen lawfare study should alarm most Americans. Gun rights radicals love it. Bruen’s challenge to a long-standing balance between people’s rights and society’s commitment to protect them gives them an opportunity to gain a wider victory. This same reordering of values and objectives underpins efforts to limit government authority, particularly over public health and environmental restrictions.

The severity of these attacks puts weapons industry-backed rules at danger. In my 25 years as a weapons sales officer, most industry leaders acknowledged the necessity for legislation like those that followed the 1939 Supreme Court ruling U.S. v. Miller, which upheld the 1934 National Firearms Act. This rule severely restricted the sale of fully automatic weapons like “tommy guns” used by Al Capone’s gang, silencers, and sawed-off shotguns.

Miller highlighted the balance between personal liberty and public safety as a sound constitutional test for any gun regulations. This revelation led to crucial rules including the 1998 federal background-check system, or NICS. This law protected people while protecting reputable gun makers by making it harder for criminals to get guns. Until the late 2000s, most businesspeople I knew supported Miller standard-enabled laws that prevented “bad men” from buying firearms.

Unfortunately, the industry also collaborated for three decades with the National Rifle Association, which was radicalizing a political base that was hell-bent on overturning those rules. With the 2008 D.C. v. Heller ruling by the Supreme Court, which read the Second Amendment to establish a greater individual right to own a gun for self-defense, this alliance achieved its first significant triumph.

Heller wasn’t the end. While the NRA assisted in galvanizing opposition to newly elected President Barack Obama, fringe figures and conspiracy theorists were given power to turn guns into a defining issue for the right. As the NRA’s influence increased, judges who aspired to higher office—even nomination to the Supreme Court—got the message and began making more extreme rulings on gun rights in order to maintain their names at the top of lists of potential nominees.

Brett Kavanaugh, then a federal judge on the D.C. Circuit, stated in a dissent that courts should no longer use constitutional standards for gun regulations that balanced public safety with Second Amendment rights—the cornerstone of the Supreme Court’s Miller decision—as an example of this tendency. After Trump’s announcement, NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre urged members to lobby senators to confirm Kavanaugh. The NRA and Federalist Society spent millions to endorse Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

The current Supreme Court majority prioritises gun owners’ rights over most others due to the NRA’s political operations. Lower courts are showing results. It’s uncertain how this conservative-dominated high court bench will decide on each Bruen-inspired challenge, but the cases presently moving through the circuits will push the justices to rapidly determine whether they were honest in their goal to overturn Miller’s balancing.

This is serious. The justices must decide if we should compel gun ownership in grocery stores, churches, and other spaces. They must decide whether to allow open carry in all 50 states, including the largest cities, with all the potential for chaos. They will have to decide whether to remove regulations banning domestic abusers from obtaining firearms and murdering their spouses or AR-15 bans for troubled youngsters. Given how serious everything is, the NRA may be right: the Second Amendment determines whether we can self-govern more than any other Constitutional provision.

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