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I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. – Albert Einstein
Since the “war to end all wars,” which H.G. Wells said would happen a hundred years ago but didn’t, the “peace to end all peace” led to the horrors of the second world war, proxy wars during the Cold War, and violent conflicts today that affect civilians more than they should and cross the red lines set by the laws of armed conflict. The tools of war and the firepower that can be used have changed a lot. There are huge chances of a third world war. We have the military power to completely destroy ourselves if we use all of our weapons and methods of war, such as conventional, nuclear, cyber, drones, and so on.
Violence is raging in the Middle East, and Europe and Russia are on the edge of war over Ukraine. The United States is once again taking military action in Iraq, and Afghanistan is in danger as NATO pulls out. Other easily recognizable points of escalation include disputed islands in the South China Sea, tensions on the Korean peninsula, and Kashmir.
We have, however, learned a lot about how to stop fights in the past 100 years. After the Second World War, we set up the United Nations with the main goal of keeping future generations from having to go through what we went through. Over the course of decades, the European Union grew from a trade agreement to an organization that won the Nobel Peace Prize for its part in making Europe a continent of peace instead of war. NATO has helped strengthen the transatlantic alliance, which brought together many European countries for a common goal. Today, it’s hard to picture a war between Germany and France.
In Africa, Asia, the South Pacific, and the Americas, there are also other regional groups. International bodies have been set up to carry out disarmament and security treaties, and universities and think tanks, like Chatham House, which was founded in 1919 to try to stop future wars, have been used to share the knowledge of civil society.
Since 1946, there have been 254 armed conflicts, of which 114 can be called wars, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (defined as more than one thousand battle-related deaths per annum). Since the end of the Cold War, there have been a lot less armed conflicts. Only seven of the 33 armed conflicts listed in 2013 could be called wars. This is a drop of 50% since 1989. I don’t know what weapons will be used in World War III, but sticks and stones will be used in World War IV. – Albert Einstein
Since the “war to end all wars,” which H.G. Wells said would happen a hundred years ago but didn’t, the “peace to end all peace” led to the horrors of the second world war, proxy wars during the Cold War, and violent conflicts today that affect civilians more than they should and cross the red lines set by the laws of armed conflict. The tools of war and the firepower that can be used have changed a lot. There are huge chances of a third world war. We have the military power to completely destroy ourselves if we use all of our weapons and methods of war, such as conventional, nuclear, cyber, drones, and so on.
Violence is raging in the Middle East, and Europe and Russia are on the edge of a war over Ukraine. The United States is once again taking military action in Iraq, and Afghanistan is in danger as NATO pulls out. Other easy-to-spot points of escalation include disputed islands in the South China Sea, tensions on the Korean peninsula, and the situation in Kashmir.
We have, however, learned a lot about how to stop fights in the past 100 years. After the Second World War, we set up the United Nations with the main goal of keeping future generations from having to go through what we went through. Over the course of decades, the European Union grew from a trade agreement to an organization that won the Nobel Peace Prize for its part in making Europe a continent of peace instead of war. NATO has helped strengthen the transatlantic alliance, which brought together many European countries for a common goal. Today, it’s hard to picture a war between Germany and France.
In Africa, Asia, the South Pacific, and the Americas, there are also other regional groups. International bodies have been set up to carry out disarmament and security treaties, and universities and think tanks, like Chatham House, which was founded in 1919 to try to stop future wars, have been used to share the knowledge of civil society.
Since 1946, there have been 254 armed conflicts, of which 114 can be called wars, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (defined as more than one thousand battle-related deaths per annum). Since the end of the Cold War, there have been a lot less armed conflicts. Only seven of the 33 armed conflicts listed in 2013 could be called wars. This is a drop of 50% since 1989.
Armed conflicts have decreased because of many things, such as the end of proxy wars, peace processes led by the UN, and economic growth. Research from the Human Security Report shows that even when peace talks and cease-fire agreements fail, they still reduce violence. In 2013, six peace deals were signed, and in 2012, four were made. In recent years, we seem to have learned how to make, keep, and enforce peace, despite what most people think.
Civilians are protected by the laws of armed conflict and human rights laws, as well as by the International Criminal Court, war crime tribunals, economic and military sanctions, and domestic justice commissions. Even though it is against the law in most countries to own or use nuclear weapons, international law has already made it illegal to own or use deadly weapons like chemical and biological weapons, antipersonnel landmines, cluster munitions, and blinding lasers.
There is a lot of research in academic fields that study war and peace that helps us understand how wars start and how they can be stopped or ended. We know that no approach or system is perfect, but we also know that a lack of resources, changes in the environment, economic stress, the movement of refugees, and racism are all things that can lead to conflict. We know how important history and culture are, how important gender is, and how different political systems can make conflict more likely or less likely.
Chatham House and FRIDE predicted in a study for the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) that the world will be more unstable in 2030 and that governments and international institutions will have a hard time dealing with the twin trends of more interdependence and more fragmentation. Most importantly, we realized that the chances of wars between countries are getting higher and that a big war between countries can’t be ruled out in the near future.
People thought Europe was “too civilized” to go to war in the years before the First World War. Before the Second World War, people thought that Nazi Germany’s aggression could be stopped. We tend to be too optimistic about how long a war will last (“we’ll be home by Christmas”), how big it will be, and what will happen at the end of it.
We need to stop being too comfortable and be more honest about war, peace, and ourselves. We know a lot about what to do to stop war. We owe it to everyone who gave up their lives and families for peace in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia to put everything we’ve learned into practise and make sure peace lasts for future generations. Otherwise, there won’t be many people left to listen to us.
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